Bitcoin

Will A War With Iran Send Bitcoin (BTC) To The Moon?

It behooves a speculator to speculate, and nothing gets the attention of the speculator more than the classic market catalyst of “war in the Middle East.” So last night’s U.S. strike, killing Iranian General Soleimani, is the sort of event that gets markets moving.

As one might expect, oil jumped and so did gold. Oil is up 3% and gold jumped 2%.

In this new world there is a third safe haven asset, bitcoin (BTC). It is up 5%.

Here is a chart of that action:

This is a very interesting chart because it shows the global professionals reacting to the news much faster than the private traders and it might be suggested this hike is the result of Middle Eastern retail piling into BTC as a flight to safety rather than the relatively non-existent institutional money.

In any event, bitcoin has the most beta in this situation and what’s more there appears to be plenty of time to get your trade on in response to the news.

This, of course, is a gift to all skilled traders, a three-hour warning to buy.

Longer term, however, it is clear to see that in instances where there is trouble in capital controlled countries like Iran and China, bitcoin will be a key asset when times get sketchy.

As such, for those speculators who think of gold and oil as the place to trade when war in the Middle East is on the rise, then bitcoin is the place to be.

For those wanting to trade what might be a U.S./Iran escalation, bitcoin is the place to do your thing because while there are trillions in gold and oil to suck up demand, there is only a smattering of bitcoin to take the sort of buying surge a country like Iran could create were the situation to spin up into a large scale conflict.

Bitcoin is the best place for flight capital and haven capital for those in Iran wishing to protect their assets, and that alone is enough to drive Bitcoin back towards its previous and all-time highs. Then there is the exaggerated Beta of Bitcoin that will draw in the global speculators and their wall of money, so that in an extended and fraught US/Iran conflict only one thing is certain about the price of Bitcoin and that is, it will be far higher than it is now.

This Article Originally Featured In Forbes.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin price rockets 23% as investors look for a new safe haven. ‘The crypto king is on fire.’

Cryptocurrencies have seen a remarkable resurgence as investors flock to relative safe havens amid a flurry of quantitative easing measures by global central banks.

Central banks including the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England have announced asset-purchase schemes in recent days. Bitcoin, a finite cryptocurrency with only 21 million units in existence, has seen a 23% one-day surge. Bitcoin is currently up 21% as of 10.10 a.m. in London (6.10 a.m. ET), per Coindesk.

The cryptocurrency had been down 30% year-to-date amid a sell-off fueled by market uncertainty about the outbreak of coronavirus. However, investors may be looking to digital currencies in the wake of easing measures elsewhere. Other cryptocurrencies like ethereum, XRP, and bitcoin cash all saw major reversals by more than 15% over the same period.

“When it comes to bitcoin, the crypto king is on fire, and we have seen a decent rally,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, in a morning note.

“Given the fact that the price has crossed the $6,000 mark — an important level of resistance — the upward momentum is likely to pick up the pace, and if the price crosses the 200-day moving average on a daily time frame, it would be a huge buy signal.”

Volumes at cryptocurrency exchanges have jumped, with Coinbase, Bitstamp, and Bitfinex combined seeing a 19% bump in 24-hour exchange volume, according to data aggregator CryptoCompare.

Binance

Binance CEO Makes Rare Price Prediction On When To Buy Bitcoin

Bitcoin, along with the surging wider cryptocurrency market, has had an incredible start to the year.

The bitcoin price has rallied around 50% since January 1, with some smaller cryptocurrencies making surprise triple-digit percentage gains, and many bitcoin bulls think it still has further to go—though problems could be on the horizon.

Now, Changpeng Zhao, the widely-respected founder and chief executive of the world’s biggest bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchange Binance, has broken his rule against market forecasting to predict “the bitcoin price will likely increase.”

“I personally believe the halving has not been priced in,” Changpeng Zhao, often known simply as CZ, told bitcoin, cryptocurrency and blockchain video news site BlockTV this week, adding he “doesn’t usually give market predictions” because he will be wrong “50% of the time.”

Bitcoin traders and investors have begun gearing up for the looming May bitcoin halving event, among other positive bitcoin developments expected this year, when the coin reward for mining new bitcoin blocks is scheduled to drop from 12.5 bitcoin to 6.25 bitcoin–cutting the supply of new bitcoin coming onto the market by half.

There have already been two bitcoin halvings since bitcoin launched in 2009, one in 2012 and another in 2016. Bitcoin halvings are scheduled to continue roughly once every four years until the maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins has been generated by the network, something that won’t happen until well into the next century.

Whether the upcoming bitcoin halving has been “priced in” by the market has become a controversial issue among investors. Generally, in well-developed markets, equity, commodities and currencies are priced based on future expectations—suggesting that as bitcoin traders and investors are aware of the May halving, the price will have already made the gains related to it.

CZ disagrees, however, telling BlockTV: “The market is not efficient. Most people don’t get information quickly. People need a lot of time to let concepts sink in and adjust.”

Many are hoping the 2020 bitcoin halving will see a repeat of the last cut to supply. Bitcoin prices doubled in 2016 and soared 13-fold the following year.

However, CZ warned that “historic events do not predict future events, so don’t take that too literally,” but explained the bitcoin halving will mean “it costs miners almost double what it does now to produce one bitcoin. Psychologically, those miners won’t be willing to sell below that price.”

bitcoin, bitcoin price, Binance, Changpeng Zhao, bitcoin halving, chart — The bitcoin price has soared so far this year but has swung wildly in recent weeks, bouncing around … [+]

COINBASE

“New bitcoin coming to market will be severely limited and at the same time we’re seeing more users and traders coming in.”

“Economic theory tells us that the bitcoin price will likely increase but this is just the theory and hard to predict,” CZ said, adding he’s feeling “pretty positive.”

Meanwhile, the number of people searching Google for the term “bitcoin halving” has been steadily rising along with the bitcoin price.

Analysts at Arcane Research found last month that an increase in searches could be a sign bitcoin’s halving will recapture the wider public interest in bitcoin and crypto that catapulted the bitcoin price to around $20,000 in 2017.

Many other bitcoin and cryptocurrency market watchers share CZ’s enthusiasm, though some think it could be other factors that push up the bitcoin price.

“I still think that bitcoin will hit $100,000 by end of December 2021,” Anthony Pompliano, the cofounder of bitcoin and crypto investment group Morgan Creek Digital, said last month, pointing to bitcoin’s “fixed supply” and “increasing demand” as the reason for bitcoin’s performance.

Elsewhere, others are not so upbeat—with the the chief executive of China-based investment advisory group RockTree Capital last month forecasting we could see the bitcoin price dip.

This Article Originally Appeared In Forbes

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Is Skyrocketing As Investors Panic About Coronavirus

The cryptocurrency has soared as fears about the coronavirus outbreak send shock waves throughout global stock markets.

The price of one bitcoin (XBT) is now hovering around $9,300. Bitcoin is up nearly 10% this week and has gained 30% since the end of 2019. It’s the best start to the year for bitcoin since 2012.

Worries about the rapid spread of the coronavirus is one factor boosting bitcoin, an asset that often has gone up when investors are nervous. But it isn’t the only factor helping to push bitcoin higher.

“The recent bitcoin rally can be attributed to ongoing economic uncertainties,” said Shaun Djie, CEO of digital token company Digix in comments e-mailed to CNN Business.

Djie cited lingering worries about US-China trade relations, Brexit concerns and political tension between Japan and South Korea as factors that have boosted bitcoin prices. But the coronavirus is clearly the biggest catalyst as of late.

“The rise in bitcoin price correlates to the ongoing outbreak,” Djie said.

In that sense, bitcoin’s latest spike is similar to gold’s stellar run this year. The yellow metal has also surged this month and is now trading at a seven-year high.

“Is this peak bullishness for the stock market? Gold and bitcoin are up as investors don’t seem convinced about last year’s stock rally,” said Marija Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist with State Street in an interview with CNN Business.

Veitmane added that bitcoin, as well as gold, is benefiting from the fact that interest rates are low (or in some cases, negative) following cuts by the Federal Reserve and many other central banks last year.

That has led to a decline in the US dollar versus other currencies over the past few months.

Weaker dollar is good for bitcoin

Bitcoin, gold and other cryptocurrencies and precious metals have historically done well when investors bet that the value of big government-backed currencies will fall.

“There is a new consensus building about dollar weakness,” Veitmane said. “Bitcoin and gold may continue to do well as safe haven investments.”

Djie agreed. “Gold and bitcoin have become prominent alternatives for retail investors looking to safeguard their wealth.”

Investors considering bitcoin as a long-term investment should probably think of bitcoin much like gold. It could be a small part of a portfolio but not something investors should go overboard with, especially given the volatility of the cryptocurrency.

After all, bitcoin prices are still more than 50%below the all-time high of nearly $20,000 that they hit in December 2017 — even though they’ve nearly tripled from a recent low of about $3,200 in December 2018.

Big Tech and Wall Street embracing crypto

Bitcoin investing has become more mainstream thanks to cryptocurrency initiatives by big tech companies like Square (SQ) and Facebook (FB).

“The backing from Square and Facebook are definitely very significant to the overall crypto industry as it validates distributed technologies and the overall digital assets and cryptocurrency space,” Djie said. “The embrace of crypto by these companies can allow mainstream users to enjoy the versatility and agility of the technology.”

The rise of futures trading for bitcoin on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) may also help validate bitcoin with larger mutual funds, hedge funds and pensions.

“Among the biggest contributors to the rally, as I see it, is the hope that 2020 could finally see institutional investors move into the digital field en masse, prompted by growing client demand and more attractive ways to get exposure than direct ownership of coins,” said Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors (GROW), in a recent blog post.

But Holmes conceded that the Securities and Exchange Commission could provide the biggest boost for bitcoin if it ever approves a crypto-backed exchange-traded fund. The SEC has rejected numerous proposals so far.

“It’s no exaggeration to say that a bitcoin ETF is highly anticipated,” Holmes wrote.

This Article Originally Appeared In CNN